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For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough.
For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below.
It identifies turning points which act as a reference point for the construction of coincident, leading and lagging indicators of the economy.
This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle.
Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure.
As noted above, you may add other data series to this line before entering a formula.
It has been a quarter of a century since India commenced the journey of opening its economy to the world.
The Euro area covers the Europe 16 area excluding Denmark, Sweden, and United Kingdom.
OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", org/std/cli (Accessed on date) OECD based Recession Indicators for Euro Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough For example, invert an exchange rate by using formula 1/a, where “a” refers to the first FRED data series added to this line.
The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month.
The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD.
The US’ National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real gross domestic product (GDP), real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A BCDC maintains a chronology comprising alternating dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity.
It analyses and compares the behaviour of key macroeconomic variables such as consumption, investment, unemployment, money supply, inflation, stock prices, etc., which may have different dynamics before, during and after the recession.
But the idea of a business cycle dating committee (BCDC) for India has not received sufficient attention.